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A global-to-local model approach to assess future land use dynamics: An application to Vietnam.
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The paper presents an innovative assessment method which integrates a global macro-economic Computable General Equilibrium model with a spatialland use allocation model to analyse future land use patterns in Vietnam under various scenarios. The scenarios include: (1) a baseline scenario reflectingthe ‘Business as Usual’ (BaU) and simulates a growth path for Vietnam and the rest of the world assuming no implementation of new policies, (2) a High Climate Impact (HCI) scenario that reveals the consequences of climate change on Vietnam’s economy and land use (modelled primarily through yields) and (3) a High Economic Growth (HEG) scenario which implements thegrowth target incorporated in the Socio-Economic Development Strategy (SEDS) of Vietnam and yield targets of Vietnam’s Master Plan on Agriculture and demonstrates the consequences for Vietnam’s economic structure and national and local land use. The outcomes of the scenario analyses can be used to identify challenges and opportunities, and to inform policies in the areas of land use, climate change and the overall economy (e.g. trade, food security).
Tác giả
Rutten, Martine
Van Rooij, Wilbert
Van Dijk, Michiel
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Từ khóa chủ đề
CGE modelling , Scenario studies , Local land use change , Food security , Climate change , Technological change , Economic growth , Economic development , Technological change , Calibration and parameter estimation , North America
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A global-to-local model approach.pdf
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